DRAM contract prices have surged quarter after quarter while HBM capacity squeezes conventional memory. With tightness possibly running into 2028, here is what purchasing teams can do now.
There is no bottom-of-the-cycle narrative in the 2026 memory market. WSTS data shows the global semiconductor market reached $702 billion in the first half of 2026, up 102% year over year, with memory as the largest engine. For OEM and EMS purchasing teams, the real questions are when this round of increases ends and how the commodity DRAM, eMMC and NAND Flash on the BOM should be managed.
How far have prices gone
- DRAM contract prices rose more than 50% quarter over quarter entering 2026, with some trackers revising first-quarter forecasts above 90%;
- TrendForce projected Q2 2026 DRAM contract prices up 58%–63% QoQ and NAND Flash up 70%–75%;
- Bernstein expects conventional DRAM and NAND average selling prices to rise another 15%–20% in the second half, per its September 2026 report.
The root cause: HBM crowds out conventional capacity
The structural driver behind the shortage is AI data center demand for HBM. Vendors keep prioritizing wafer and packaging capacity for HBM3E and beyond, squeezing conventional DRAM and NAND supply; conservative mature-node expansion and downstream restocking widen the gap. The SK hynix 2026 outlook calls it an HBM-led memory supercycle, and several firms expect tightness to persist into 2028.
Four moves for purchasing teams
- Lock the memory BOM for shipping products, re-estimate gaps on a 13-week rolling basis, and prefer framework agreements over spot lots;
- Run last-time-buy calculations early for EOL-prone parts such as DDR3 and LPDDR4, avoiding the double hit of rising prices plus discontinuation;
- Build an alternate-source database and have firmware validate second sources in advance;
- Use the cycle in reverse: high-price windows are the best time to monetize excess DRAM and NAND, when spot-market liquidity is strongest.
Xinyuda Electronics tracks supply and pricing across memory and the wider component market, providing shortage sourcing, EOL material procurement and excess inventory revitalization for OEM and EMS customers. If memory shortages or inventory carrying costs are weighing on your operations, talk to us.